Since the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan.  That’s how long it will have been when the 2016 Democratic convention begins. I could throw a bunch of numbers and links diagramming the amount of attacks; successful and not, throughout US history. This post isn’t about history – unless you want to count future history.

For the record, I’m against the act, no matter the reasoning behind it. If the FBI want to talk to me about this post, feel free. I’m in the phone book, and I work down the street from the Academy. Easy visit. Bring pizza (you know where).

With all that has transpired this presidential election cycle, I’m actually surprised that a ‘proper’ attempt has not yet occurred. Lord knows how many factions have an ax to grind; whether the candidates in particular or the process in general. All I can be really sure of is that the Secret Service has to be lucky every day – the nutjob(s) only once.

Jumping over to motive, it’s easy to explain away the nutjobs. Anything from tin foil hats, to those trying to impress an actress, to those claiming ‘my dog told me to do it’. Not to diminish the threat from that quadrant, but I’d put the odds at higher than 100:1. Why? The various law agencies have decent databases to sift through for potential loose cannons. If someone ends up being #101 on the list, it’s probably because they haven’t drawn attention before.

Foreigners. Who hasn’t the US pissed off in this millennia? I separate these from nutjobs only because I believe that they would operate in groups, have some sort of formal agenda, and can achieve- for lack of a better term – economies of scale and mobility. [Red Army Faction, SLA (okay, they were homegrown), that Shinrikyo cult in Japan].

Sub-category, Foreign governments: Asian nations drooling over the TPP, Russia drooling of Ukraine (Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, etc.). Central & South America? I haven’t heard many policy blurbs from any main candidate. But, when there’s big money to be had, eliminating the right people at the right time is very tempting. So I guess that means all points south of the border are up shit creek (I don’t see involvement from south of the border – they’ve got their own problems).

Homegrown threats (not nutjobs). We’re seeing semi-disorganized groups attacking other groups (yet surprisingly, not at a Clinton event – correct me if I’m wrong). What would it take for one of these groups to decide that the game is truly rigged and dishonest (it is) and decide something extreme must be done? Again, law enforcement probably has some inkling on activities, but they can’t know everything.

The insider option (for the conspiracy folk out there). I go to my trusty, dependable stand-by: follow the money. The obvious first contestant is Clinton; selected, paid in full, gift receipts issued to the purchasers. But. The purchasers need to get insurance on their purchase. It is conceivable that an elimination scheme is an option.

Trump. A serious case of ‘all-in’ poker, using his own bankroll. Why not have a Plan B? If the July to September numbers don’t favor him, what’s he got to lose by making a few whispers? If caught, then dies in prison. If not, emperor-in-chief.

Sanders (as Independent or Green): mostly a threat to Clinton. If he chooses to go Independent, he’ll definitely cut the Democrats in half – almost assuredly giving Trump the win. If she can’t buy him off / convert him, he’ll need to disappear. Simple as that. I’d bet money on a ‘Buddy Holly’ incident.

There is the fourth possibility that I am totally and unequivocally wrong about this. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.